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Strategic policy considerations

3.1 Environmental constraints and scarcity of land impose limitations on the ability to provide new housing. However, there is a duty and legal requirement to provide people in Torbay with a decent home. This requirement extends to those who are not able to afford market housing. Whilst we are no longer in a regime of ‘predict and provide’, information on population, including its growth and age composition, tells us a great deal about Torbay’s requirements for homes, jobs and all the other facilities which serve the community. These should be provided for in the Local Plan.

Population change

3.2 The Plan preparation and Local Plan Inquiry predated the 2001 Census. Detailed information from this did not become available until mid 2003, which was 8 years into the Plan period of 1995-2011. The population and housing assumptions in the Local Plan are based on mid and late 1990s estimates. Some figures for the 2001 Census are included here for information purposes. However, these will be taken into account in the preparation of the Local Development Framework, which will constitute the first review of the Local Plan. Care should be taken in interpreting the 2001 Census figures, due to differences in methodology. In particular, the 2001 Census is likely to have picked up a formerly un-represented ‘hidden’ population. The resident population of Torbay’s three towns is as follows:-

Figure 4: Resident population of Torbay

Source: 1991 and 2001 Censuses - mid-year estimates.

Note:* For information only.

3.3 Torbay’s population growth has slowed down since the rapid expansion of the 1960s and the early 1970s as Figure 5 shows.

3.4 Figure 5 also shows the most recent ODPM population projections for Torbay up to 2011. Whilst the projected rate of growth is low compared to the boom years of the 1960s, it is an increase on recent years. However, the following factors need to be borne in mind:-

• The strategic framework is the Adopted Devon Structure Plan First Review (1999) and the Local Plan housing provision is in line with this. There is therefore no need to increase the housing provision in this Plan.

• The Government has moved away from ‘predict and provide’ to a ‘plan, monitor and manage’ approach. The projection in Figure 5 takes no account of strategic planning (including environmental) factors which are accepted by Government, RPG and the Structure Plan to be important in Torbay (see paragraphs 2.10 to 2.20).

  One consequence of the ‘plan, monitor and manage’ approach will be that the Local Plan’s housing provision will be reviewed after a few years. By that time, the population forecasts may have changed again.

• It is important, in order to achieve sustainable development, to ensure that there is a balanced provision between economic development (and employment) and housing provision. In future, there needs to be more ‘coupling’ of these two aspects rather than continuing to attract new residents without the corresponding appropriate amount of employment.

3.5 The average household size in Great Britain had been about 4.6 people for many years until the early 20th Century. Figure 6 shows the move towards smaller households since 1981, indicating an increase in demand for additional housing. 1998 estimates indicate that the average household size in England is 2.37 people. In the South West it was 2.34 and 2.25 in Torbay. There is every indication that the average household size is set to fall further with the increasing tendency to form single person households (about 30% of households in Devon) with fewer traditional nuclear families, although this is slightly offset by very recent evidence of increasing cohabitation. This, together with the fact that people are living longer, has implications for housing provision in the Local Plan, not only in allocating more dwellings for a given population than hitherto, but also in making provision for an increased number of smaller dwellings to meet the needs of Torbay’s existing and future residents through the Plan period. However, there is even a demand from many smaller households for increased space provision in the form of bedrooms for visitors, storage and space for hobbies, activities or for working from home.

Figure 5: Population growth in Torbay

Source: DETR (now ODPM) population projections 1998 - Census.

Notes:

2001 Census figures for information only (see paragraph 3.2 above).

* Includes for the first time imputed wholly absent households.

** Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates.

Figure 6: Reduction in average household size in Devon 1981-2021

Source: Projections of Households in England to 2021(DETR 2000)

Note: * Projected.

Figure 7: Resident population

Source: 1971, 1981 and 1991 Censuses.

Notes:

++ 2001 Census for information purposes only.

* ONS Mid-Year Estimates 1997 and 1990 (figures may not be strictly comparable with Census data).

** males 65+; females 60+.

3.6 Another critical aspect of the population make up is its age structure. Figure 7 shows the growth of the resident population since 1971 and highlights Torbay’s ‘top heavy’ age structure. The growth of the working age group is also evident.

3.7 Figure 8 compares Torbay with the average age structures for Great Britain and Devon. The high proportion of the elderly reflects the heavy migration rates, particularly of the retired, experienced over recent decades. There has been and continues to be a net inward migration of people to Torbay in nearly all age groups, without which the population would naturally decline. However, the proportion of the elderly in Torbay has fallen slightly in recent years, from 29.5% in 1971 and 29.4% in 1981 to 27.9% in 1991, to 26% in 1999 and 25.72% in 2001. However, the elderly population is likely to rise in the Plan period, due to the nation’s ageing population structure. In particular, the number of people aged 85+ is likely to increase. Figure 9 illustrates the population structure changes experienced in Torbay between 1991 and 2001.

Figure 8: Population structure (1991)

Source: 1991 Census.

Figure 9: Population structure of Torbay - Change 1991-2001

Source: 1991 and 2001 Censuses.

Strategic housing provision: plan, monitor and manage

3.8 The overriding housing aim of the Government is to provide everyone with the opportunity of a decent home. The strategic approach to achieving this in the context of sustainable development stems from the White Paper ‘Planning for the communities of the future’ (1998) which stated “For too long we have been stuck in a ‘predict and provide’ approach to meeting demand for new homes. This Government intends to break that mould.” The Government’s policy document ‘Sustainable Communities - Building for the Future’ (February 2003), informally known as ‘The Communities Plan’, reinforces its commitment to developing houses - and especially affordable housing - within a sustainable context.

3.9 ‘Plan, monitor and manage’ is the phrase now given to this new approach, which is set out in PPG3 ‘Housing’ (2000). This links with the six housing objectives as set out in Figure 3 Strategic statement, aims and objectives of the Local Plan. It comprises the following elements:-

• The plan element includes the need, within a long-term context, to take a realistic and responsible approach to future housing provision - firstly at a regional level which is then cascaded down to structure plans and finally, at a more detailed level, in local plans. There needs to be a balance between housing and economic growth and a reconciliation with social and environmental considerations.

• The monitor element includes the need to keep both housing requirements and housing provision under regular review, based on factors such as household projections, economic needs, the capacity of urban areas to accommodate more housing, environmental implications of new development and infrastructural capacity.

• The manage element includes the phasing of land releases to ensure that new infrastructure is co-ordinated with new housing development and that the rate of development of brownfield sites is on target and does not lag behind the development of greenfield sites. Managing should also guard against under or over-provision of housing - i.e. in this Local Plan, in relation to the Devon Structure Plan provision to 2011.

Regional Planning Guidance

3.10 The 1994 version of Regional Planning Guidance for the South West (RPG10) set the regional context to 2011. Torbay was identified as a one of the main urban areas, to accommodate “a substantial proportion of the Region’s housing and other development in ways which make the most effective use of land, transport and other services whilst protecting adjoining rural areas”. RPG10 also cited Torbay’s environmental quality and limited scope for substantial growth, and these environmental limitations have influenced the Structure Plan’s constrained housing provision for Torbay.

3.11 The revised RPG10, adopted in September 2001, also acknowledges that environmental and transport constraints restrict the potential for physical expansion of Torbay. However, the need for substantial economic diversification and regeneration is identified in Policy SS16. RPG10 sets out regional objectives of providing everyone with the chance of a decent home; minimising greenfield development by prioritising re-use of previously developed land, bringing empty properties into use and conversion of existing buildings; creation of mixed communities, sustainable patterns of development and well designed residential environments to promote urban renaissance (paragraph 7.1). Policy HO2 promotes the monitoring and management of housing provision, whilst HO3 encourages the provision of sufficient affordable housing. HO5 and HO6 relate to maximising use of previously developed land, and mix of housing types and densities respectively. The Local Plan’s preparation period coincided with the preparation of the revised RPG10, the context of which it therefore reflects.

Devon Structure Plan

3.12 The Adopted Devon Structure Plan First Review (1999) is part of the development plan for Torbay and sets out strategic housing provision. The Structure Plan indicates that about 6,200 dwellings are to be accommodated in Torbay during the Plan period (1995-2011), whilst recognising that:

• firstly, land suitable for new housing is becoming an increasingly scarce resource in Torbay;

• secondly, a high level of commitments already exists in terms of planning permissions; and

• thirdly, the extensive urban area of Torbay offers scope for increased housing through the development of small ‘brownfield’ sites, redevelopment and conversion, without loss of amenity.

3.13 The Structure Plan housing provision is constrained to a far greater degree than is the case for employment land, for reasons set out in Chapter 2. Figure 10 illustrates the level of housing constraint for Torbay, South Devon and the entire Devon area in relation to the demographically implied provision. The ‘demographically implied provision’ is the amount of housing provision which would be provided solely on the basis of population estimates, i.e. if environmental constraints had not been taken into account.

3.14 Figure 10 shows that the Structure Plan housing provision for Devon almost equals the demographically implied provision. In fact, South Devon was the only sub-region out of the four Devon sub-regions to receive a constrained housing provision and the Torbay provision is close to the South Devon average.

Figure 10: Structure Plan housing provision for Torbay and South Devon

Source: Adopted Devon Structure Plan First Review (1999). Accommodating Change in Devon (1996), Proposed Modifications (1998) and Structure Plan demographic work.

3.15 In order for the Local Plan constraint strategy to take effect, the Council considers that, as a first step, it must ensure that the high level of unimplemented planning permissions is not increased even further ahead of the completion rate, and that large sites which already have permission for housing should be targeted for development.

3.16 Policies to control the rate of new approvals are essential to this strategy. They also need to be monitored in relation to completion rates to ensure that they are applied in a responsive and flexible way. The Council considers that, once existing commitments have been reduced, the restraint policy should aim to achieve an average completion rate of about 350 dwellings a year. Towards the end of the Plan period this should be treated as a maximum.

3.17 It important that Torbay’s growth does not run out of control. Torbay can meet most of its Structure Plan requirements on committed sites, allocations on previously developed (brownfield) land and a continuation of the existing rate of brownfield windfall development. The Local Plan therefore contains proposals to release only two additional greenfield housing sites which were not previously identified in the Adopted Torbay Local Plan (1991) which covered the period 1981-1996, (in addition to one mainly brownfield site on the edge of Brixham).

Range of forecasting

3.18 The forecasting of dwelling requirements is not an exact science and standard models to assess the future levels of housing demand probably do not take sufficient account of local circumstances. Even during the comparatively short period since 1981 there has been considerable variation in the completion rate in Torbay. Using completion rates as a guide to future provision over the Plan period, estimates would vary from 4080 (i.e. 104 dwellings x 20 years) at the lowest rate to 12,500 (625 x 20) at the highest rate. Taking the average over the 1981-2001 period, the figure would be 8,350 (417.5 x 20) dwellings.

3.19 Figure 11 shows the number of housing completions for each year from 1981 to 2003. The Local Plan is seeking to achieve a significant reduction in the level of housing development, compared with that achieved during the speculative years of the late 1980s and very early 1990s.

Figure 11: Housing completions

Source: Torbay Survey of Housing Land 1999, Torbay Housing Land Monitor 2003.
Completion returns from HBF and Environment Services.

Note: Figures show numbers of dwellings.

Making provision for completions

3.20 The way in which the Structure Plan requirement of 6200 dwelling completions for the period 1995 to 2011 is to be accomplished is shown in detail in Figure 12, see below:-

Figure 12: Meeting the Structure Plan housing requirement

Source: Torbay Housing Land Monitor 2001 and Urban Housing Potential Study 1998.
Inspector’s Report into Objections to the Plan - Recommendation no. 3.04.

Notes:

1. The percentage completion rates are based on the 1998 data used in the Council’s Urban Housing Potential Study with a slightly more conservative estimate of conversions. In updating the figures to 2000/1, the percentage completion rates have been reduced in categories 3, 4 and 5 (except conversions) to reflect the fact that there were two fewer years of the Plan to run. However, a more conservative rate of actual conversions has been applied.

2. See Inspector’s Report into Objections to the Plan, Section 3.2.3, Issue (e), pp 23-24 for his comments on certainty of completion assumptions.

3. These figures will be reviewed in the light of further monitoring, e.g. completion rates, expired permissions, etc, when reviewing the Plan and in considering the release of Phase 2 sites.

4. Only H1 proposals which did not have planning permission in April 2000 are included in these figures, i.e there is no double counting with committed dwellings in 3 i).

3.21 Figure 13 is a bar graph which shows at a glance the contribution made by the categories of the previous table (Figure 11) and the relationship of consents to completions.

Figure 13: Local Plan housing provision 1995-2011

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Minimising greenfield development through a sequential approach to housing provision

3.22 Government advice, in particular PPG3 ‘Housing’ (2000), and the sustainable development agenda in general, encourage Councils to maximise the provision of new housing on ‘brownfield’ or previously developed land within urban areas, subject to proper environmental considerations. This is in order to minimise the loss of countryside and promote sustainable communities, with housing located close to other uses, such as employment land. PPG3 also advocates the application of a sequential approach to the release of housing land and the phasing of land to ensure that urban areas are targeted first. However, the Government is also determined to promote urban renaissance in which everyone has the opportunity of a decent home. It is important to ensure that the emphasis on housing development within the urban areas does not compromise the quality of life already enjoyed by urban residents through ‘town cramming’.

3.23 Following Government advice and the sustainable development agenda and based on the results of the Urban Housing Potential Study, the aim of the Local Plan is to achieve at least 65% of its housing provision on brownfield sites. This is well above the target of 60% by 2008 set out in PPG3 (paragraph 23). This strategic housing aim will be used by the Council as a basis for monitoring the release of new housing sites.

3.24 Figure 12 shows that a significant proportion of the Structure Plan requirement (70.1% as of 2001) is already built, under construction or with planning permission and estimated to be completed within the Plan period. The Council’s sequential approach to achieve the remainder of the Structure Plan housing requirement, includes:-

• Making best use of existing housing stock.

• Making a realistic allowance of the potential of small urban brownfield sites (below 0.4 hectares/1 acre) based on the Urban Housing Potential Study (see below) and developing land at as high a density as is appropriate (Policy H10).

• Identifying large brownfield sites of over 0.4 hectares/1 acre as Policy H1 housing sites.

• Only identifying greenfield sites of more than 0.4 hectares/1 acre as Policy H1 housing sites to meet the outstanding residual need not met through the development of brownfield sites.

• Phasing releases in two periods to ensure a 5 year land supply from 2000-2005 and 2006-2011. Whilst the release of the brownfield sites will not be constrained, the release of greenfield sites will be constrained in order to ensure that over-provision does not occur.

3.25 It is important to realise that the granting of planning permission or the inclusion of a proposal in the Local Plan - and to an even greater degree, the identification of an allowance for small ‘windfall’ sites - does not guarantee their development, either within the Plan period or at all. The Structure Plan provision is for housing completions, and for the Plan to be realistic, it is necessary to apply a ‘certainty of completion’ factor to each category of development in Figure 12. The certainty of completion factor used in the Local Plan is based on experience and on discussions with local developers and was raised at the Devon Structure Plan Examination in Public. It ranges from 70% for small sites identified in the Urban Housing Potential Study, which do not have planning permission, to 95% for larger sites with planning permission. These percentages were supported by the Local Plan Inquiry Inspector, but will be reviewed in the light of further monitoring.

3.26 The implications for Local Plan allocations are that:-

a) an allowance has to be made for certainty of completion, i.e. the total number of potential consents has to exceed the estimated completions total by a carefully calculated margin; and

b) it is important to ensure against significant over-provision of completions on greenfield sites which would be detrimental to the Local Plan’s environmental policies. It is therefore extremely important to monitor the rate of completions to ensure that significant under or over provision does not occur.

3.27 The Council will monitor the implementation of greenfield sites carefully through the annual Torbay Housing Land Monitor. Major new greenfield releases will be controlled through Policy H1A in order to ensure that the development of brownfield sites is on course to meet the Council’s 65% brownfield target. Progress towards this will form an important basis of the review of the Plan.

3.28 In the face of rising house prices the Treasury and ODPM commissioned a major study of housing supply in the UK in 2003. The resulting study, the Barker Review of Housing Supply, was published in March 2004. This identified the need to significantly increase numbers of housing completions in order to reduce house price inflation. The Review suggests a national need for between 70-120,000 additional new private sector homes per year and up to 26,000 additional affordable homes per year. The Barker Review is a study intended to inform policy and not in itself a policy document. The Review’s findings are likely to influence emerging Planning Policy Statements, particularly PPS3, and will be a material consideration in the review of the Local Plan through preparation of the Local Development Framework. They should not be taken as a justification for varying the plan, monitor and manage strategy outlined above.

Large housing sites

3.29 In accordance with PPG3 and other current Government advice, the Local Plan defines several large housing sites in Policy H1, in order to provide a positive lead for development and certainty for both the community and developers about land use changes. Allocating large housing sites also allows the development of mixed communities, served by a range of community facilities and public transport. Some of these sites have planning permission and their identification represents a commitment to renew these permissions during the Plan period and safeguard key aspects, e.g. affordable housing or design considerations. Policy H1A phases the release of greenfield sites, in accordance with the plan monitor and manage approach.

3.30 A major change in the Local Plan from the 1999 Deposit Version is the reduction in the number of greenfield housing sites by over 200 dwellings and an increase in provision on brownfield land. In the Adopted Plan about 66% of the H1 sites are greenfield, compared with 75% in the Deposit Version. Moreover, the overall housing provision in the Local Plan represents a major shift in emphasis to providing housing provision on smaller sites, in particular within the urban area, that have been identified by the Urban Housing Potential Study. It is considered that sufficient large sites have already been allocated in the Local Plan and unallocated large greenfield sites will not be granted permission for housing development. Policy H1 clarifies this point. Policy H1.22A sets out special considerations applying to the former Dolphin Holiday Camp in Brixham.

Allowance for small sites and the Urban Housing Potential Study.

3.31 In order to maximise urban capacity, PPG3 indicates that local authorities should carry out studies of urban capacity. The Council’s Urban Housing Potential (1999) provides a realistic assessment of how much of Torbay’s housing requirement can be met from its urban areas through ‘windfalls’, i.e. brownfield sites which are too small to be identified on the Proposals Map. This includes analysis of infill sites and redevelopment of derelict /rundown buildings. Although it pre-dates the March 2000 version of PPG3, the assumptions contained in the Urban Housing Potential Study are broadly in line with the definition of previously developed (brownfield) land contained in Annex C of PPG3. An estimate of sub-division of residential and conversion of commercial premises has also been made. The Study is a supporting document to the Local Plan and explains the methodology and conclusions in more detail. The Urban Housing Potential Study was debated at the Local Plan Inquiry and the Inspector broadly supported its methodology and conclusions (see paragraphs 3.2.3, Issue b, pp 19-20 of the Inspector’s Report).

3.32 The Study estimated that a total of 1975 new housing consents were likely to come on stream over the period of 1998-2011, which translated to about 1677 completions based on certainty of completion estimates. Figure 14 summarises the Study’s findings for each town and by the main types of windfalls.

Figure 14: Torbay - Potential housing opportunities on previously developed sites 1998- 2011

Source: Urban Housing Potential Study 1998.

3.33 The Urban Housing Potential Study identifies a high potential for new windfall housing arising within Torbay’s urban areas. Translating this potential into new homes is critical to achieving the Council’s target of at least 65% of all new residential development taking place on previously developed (brownfield) land. This is above the Government’s latest target of 60% and well above the Regional Planning Guidance more modest target of at least 50% for the South West Region to 2016.

3.34 Of course, windfall housing developments by their very nature are not foreseen and any estimate of potential completions has to be extremely cautious. The Local Plan needs to strike a balance between certainty of development, by giving a clear steer to specific sites for development, and placing an emphasis on developing appropriate urban areas, which means relying on windfall sites. Policy H2 outlines the Council’s policy towards housing proposals on unallocated sites, and its commitment to ensure that an appropriate supply of consents occurs which does not lead to significant under or over housing provision.